The Opener, 2026年10月29日

The AI-spending verdict that split Wall Street into winners and losers after Tuesday's earnings crush is carrying into the Pacific session, with Samsung Electronics extending its decline even after raising 2026 capital expenditure guidance to 84.4 trillion won from 52.7 trillion won, a reaction that echoes the punishment dealt to Alphabet. The Financial Times reports fresh concern over AI spending is now weighing broadly on US tech, and the premarket tape still reflects Tuesday's divide: Alphabet's A shares down 10.1% and C shares down 9.9%, ServiceNow off 17.8%, Fortinet down 25.1%, and Marvell Technology down 10.2%, against gains for Carvana up 7.9%, Chipotle up 6.8%, Instacart up 6.7%, eBay up 6.1% and Lumentum Holdings up 4.7%.

The Strait of Hormuz situation has deteriorated overnight. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy says three tankers caught fire after hitting mines off the southern coast in the past 24 hours, and a vessel was spotted on fire near Khasab. Saudi Arabia issued a danger alert in Najran. Against that, Semafor reports the Trump administration is in ongoing talks for a temporary peace deal, offering the first concrete sign of de-escalation since the blockade began.

Geopolitical risk is broadening elsewhere. North Korea fired roughly ten projectiles, with one missile appearing to land outside Japan's exclusive economic zone. Russia says it downed most of 613 drones aimed at Moscow overnight, while a Russian drone strike on Dnipro's rail station killed at least 13, according to Ukraine's governor. China's Commerce Ministry pushed back on US action against Xinjiang-linked companies, and Beijing's defense ministry criticized the Philippines over the South China Sea.

Rates and currencies are reacting to the cross-currents. The 30-year US yield slipped 5 basis points to 5.311%, the UK 10-year fell to a five-week low of 5.29%, and gold dropped below $4,050 on rising rate-hike expectations and dollar demand. The yen is flat as the Bank of Japan's policy decision looms, and the Reserve Bank of Australia's blunt communication has traders reassessing how far it will raise rates. In Europe, the EU's energy chief said the bloc is better positioned than in 2022 given 18% lower gas consumption, even as the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 edge higher and Spain's IBEX falls 1.19%.