The International Energy Agency warned on November 3 that Europe is entering winter with its lowest gas storage since 2013. It said this leaves the continent more exposed to supply disruption and could keep pressure on global energy markets through 2027.

In its Global Gas Security Review 2026, the agency said EU storage was only 75% full at the end of October. That is below the EU's 80% fill target. The IEA blames the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the Middle East conflict began in late February, low stocks at the end of last winter, and buyers who delayed purchases hoping prices would fall.

The weak starting point leaves little room for error. Low storage makes Europe lean harder on global LNG, and a low level at the end of winter would greatly increase the injections needed in summer 2027, the IEA says. That points to a problem that outlasts one season. It bears more directly on gas prices than the crude and diesel measures the agency has taken lately.

European policy is still catching up. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed strategic EU gas reserves on October 15, citing fears of winter shortages as storage fell to record lows. The Wall Street Journal reported on November 1 that US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff proposed restoring Russian gas sales to Europe through Ukraine. European officials were sceptical, pointing to the EU plan to end Russian gas imports by the end of 2027.

The IEA's modelling shows how thin the cushion is. EU storage could fall below 10% of working capacity by the end of March 2027, if the weather is colder than average and Hormuz LNG disruption continues.

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