Military Informant, a pro-Kremlin Russian military channel, said drones attacked the Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar region on November 6. It called this the sixth refinery attacked in recent days, after Ufa, Samara region, Yaroslavl, Ryazan and Nizhny Novgorod region.

Ukraine's refinery campaign was already in doubt. The Wall Street Journal reported on October 29 that Kyiv had paused strikes on Russian refineries under US pressure, with the pause expected to last until after the US midterms and possibly further into November. On October 30 Ukraine said it had hit the Novokuibyshevsk refinery. Earlier, on October 18, President Zelenskyy had said Ukraine would stop such strikes if the US sent more interceptor missiles.

Afipsky has been a target before. Ukraine's military confirmed on August 25 that it had hit the plant. Diesel is the market most exposed to this campaign: tightness tied to the attacks has already drawn a stock response from the IEA.

The larger question is what the strikes do to the talks. The Kremlin said on October 30 that Ukrainian strikes on refineries would not derail peace talks. A Kremlin aide has since said that massive Ukrainian attacks during the November 4 celebrations could affect Russia's attitude towards the trilateral negotiations. On Thursday the Kremlin said that, for lack of progress, military action in Ukraine will continue. The US talks with Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi are set for November 10-11.

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