Trump said on Thursday that he met Russia's Dmitriev today and that the US is "very close to settling" the war between Russia and Ukraine. He added that it would be a big agreement involving all of Europe.

The claim fits a pattern. Announced progress has repeatedly run ahead of confirmed terms. The energy ceasefire announced on October 11 was never confirmed by Moscow. Russia's demand for the rest of Donbas, the eastern region it only partly controls, is unchanged. A source close to the Kremlin has said Putin would negotiate only after securing the remaining 11% of Donbas that Russia does not yet hold. Putin has said eastern Ukraine is historically Russian land.

Kyiv has not moved either. Zelenskiy said on November 1 that Ukraine will certainly not give up its territories. He said Russia is demanding, through American mediators, that Ukraine withdraw from land Russia has not captured.

Russian behaviour on the ground points the same way. On November 3, Ukraine's Energy Minister Shmyhal said Russia used 289 drones, 17 ballistic missiles and 59 cruise missiles overnight. Energy facilities were the main targets, including a substation critical to the Khmelnytskyi nuclear plant. The Kremlin said on Thursday that military action will continue absent progress.

Trump's reference to all of Europe also sits oddly with what European leaders were saying days ago. On November 1, Germany's Merz said it would be absolutely unacceptable if the US, Russia and China tried to reach an understanding without the Ukrainians. Italy's Meloni said the EU needs a representative in the negotiations.

The next test is close. The US will hold trilateral talks with Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, covering an end to the war, post-war security pacts, de-escalation and aid. Zelenskiy has backed talks between negotiators rather than a leaders' summit.

© Raydn · raydn.us