Iranian outlet Nour News reports that the US military is completing preparations for a possible resumption of large-scale operations in Iran, citing an Axios account based on American officials. It cuts against the rest of the day's signals. Earlier today Trump called the recent strikes largely a job done and said the Strait of Hormuz is open. Dissent inside his administration in favour of ending the operation was also reported.

Trump's own record points the other way. He pledged that the US would not strike Iran before the November 3 election, while keeping the blockade in force. On Tuesday he said the US had destroyed an Iranian air defence site in an overnight strike, called it limited, and said the US will strike Iran's nuclear sites again if anyone tries to reach them.

The planning is well advanced. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Trump told aides he expects to resume bombing by the end of November. The Pentagon has drafted a three-day strike plan, after Trump rejected five others. Axios reported that US and Israeli officials expect a week-long bombing of Iran if there is no deal. Maariv, relayed by Anadolu, said the US has sent two aircraft carriers and 12 destroyers and warships to the Arabian Sea, and that about 190 US aircraft are refuelling.

That matters for oil. Brent had slumped 7% on hopes of mediation and Democratic gains in the election. A report of renewed large-scale planning cuts against that, and whether Washington confirms or denies the Axios account will show if the fall in the risk premium, the extra price traders put on the chance of supply disruption, holds.

Diplomacy has not settled it. The US has approved a Qatari-drafted memorandum that Iran has not accepted. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that a deal is far off and that Hormuz stays closed until Tehran's conditions are met. Arab diplomatic sources told Al-Jadeed that talks have progressed significantly and will be clearer on Friday.

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