Vance: Republicans Lost on Defections Over the War, Not Turnout

JD Vance says the GOP lost the midterms not because its voters stayed home, but because many of them voted Democratic over the war.

Republican voters showed up in the midterms but many of them voted for Democrats, Vice President JD Vance said in a post-election analysis. He blamed the war for the defections and rejected turnout as the main cause of the loss.

Vance said party data analysts spent the campaign focused on "composition," meaning whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. Turnout was merely OK in some states and very strong in others, and in no state was it catastrophic. Florida's electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democratic, a couple of points worse than 2024.

Vance said a data analyst on his side told him before the vote that many 2024 Trump/Vance voters were angry and planning to back Democrats. "Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us," the analyst said.

A pollster Vance respects predicted a 13-point loss on the generic ballot. That pollster asked defecting Trump voters what would bring them back. By Vance's account, four answers made up nearly all of the responses:

End the war
Focus on cost of living and inflation
Put America First
Change the relationship with Israel

Vance said the pollster's numbers proved accurate. He noted that many people spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, and said her advice turned out to be sound.

He said the economic message could have been sharper late in the race, as another pollster told him. But he called the war the real reason for the loss and said the president said so himself the night before. He argued that anyone who wants to defend the war should say the loss of the Senate for six years was worth it. "Agree or disagree, that's at least honest," he wrote.

Vance also warned that establishment Republicans will push amnesty as the fix. He said he is open to changing enforcement, such as targeting businesses that hire illegal labor, but called anyone pushing amnesty dishonest.

He ended on a hopeful note. He told angry voters who want to say "I told you so" that they were right, and urged them to put that energy into electing Republicans who share their views.