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From GammaLab

Morning Briefing

S&P 500 futures point to a higher open, up roughly 0.9%, as a Democratic sweep of both the House and Senate in Tuesday's midterms triggers a sharp repricing across rates, currencies and precious metals, overshadowing a still-unresolved standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.

Decision Desk HQ projects Democrats will hold the Senate and a 255-180 House majority, with wins stacking up in Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina. President Trump told the New York Times he will "work with Democrats" and, per the Wall Street Journal, privately views the Iran conflict as a factor in Republican losses. The dollar and Treasury yields fell sharply on the result, with the 2-year yield touching a two-month low near 4.55%, while gold has risen roughly 3% and silver has topped $51 an ounce. Iran's Revolutionary Guard says its navy destroyed four tankers that struck mines attempting the "prohibited" passage through Hormuz and shot down a 56th drone over the strait; Iranian officials say the waterway stays closed until Washington meets Tehran's seven conditions. Eurozone core CPI held at 4.0% year-on-year in October, above the prior 3.8%, keeping the ECB's rate debate alive; ECB presidential candidate Klaas Knot said core inflation and second-round effects are likely to pick up, warranting a "somewhat hawkish" response.

Sector moves reflect the rate shock: Technology and Materials lead, with gold and silver miners sharply higher, semiconductor names extending gains on strong earnings, and Energy the only laggard as oil eases. Momentum and high-beta factors are outperforming value.

Company News

  • AMD rises after reporting record Q3 revenue of $13.4bn, up 45% year-over-year, with data center sales nearly doubling; CEO Lisa Su expects further acceleration in Q4 and sees server revenue doubling again in 2027. AMD also disclosed an August deal to acquire Taalas for $2.9bn.
  • CVS Health beats on EPS and revenue, raises full-year guidance, and announces plans to split into two public companies, with David Joyner leading CVS Health (Aetna, Caremark, Specialty) and Prem Shah leading a new CVS Pharmacy entity.
  • Datadog falls sharply despite beating on EPS and revenue, as guidance fails to impress.
  • Fidelity National Information Services drops after narrowing guidance and pausing buybacks and tuck-in M&A to accelerate deleveraging.
  • Skyworks Solutions slides further after Q4 results, even as it reaffirmed Qorvo-merger cost-synergy targets.
  • Block gains after reaching a deferred-prosecution agreement with the Justice Department over its money-laundering program.
  • Kraft Heinz, McDonald's, Stanley Black & Decker, Zimmer Biomet, Emerson Electric and CDW all topped estimates and raised guidance.
  • Uber missed EPS estimates but guided Q4 bookings growth of 18-22%.
  • 3M will pay a nominal $7.35bn through 2034 to settle most PFAS personal-injury claims tied to firefighting foam.

Overseas Data

HSBC's India Composite PMI eased to 56.2 in October from 56.7.

Eurozone core CPI held at 4.0% year-on-year in October versus 3.8% prior. France's composite PMI fell to 46.6 from 48.4, while Germany's composite PMI improved to 53.4 and Italy's services PMI beat at 52.0.

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