Dutch TTF gas futures fell as much as 10% on Monday, the biggest one-day drop in months, as hopes for Middle East diplomacy drained the war premium that had pushed prices above €100/MWh.

The sell-off hit the Dutch hub hardest across the energy complex. Quotes during the session ranged from roughly 3% to 10% lower, depending on the contract and the time of day. At the low, front-month TTF traded near €94/MWh. By midday it sat around €95 to €102.

Relative to the run-up, the drop is small. TTF gained more than 30% in October and crossed €100 last Friday for the first time since late 2022. It is still up about 38% on the month and more than 200% on the year.

Traders had bought gas on fears that the Middle East war would spread, putting Gulf LNG and shipments at risk. A report of Trump-Iran diplomacy cut into that trade on Monday.

The market had priced in a premium for possible escalation after Tuesday's US midterm elections, and some of those bets are now being closed before the vote on profit-taking action, as fewer holders want to carry the position into a binary event.

The physical picture did not improve on Monday. Germany is set to miss its November 1 storage target, with reserves at about 61% against a 70% goal. Winter demand has not started yet.

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