The morning's risk-on bounce on hopes that the US-Iran standoff is cooling has hardened into a full-blown oil collapse and a tangle of conflicting diplomatic signals. Brent and WTI are both down more than $8 a barrel intraday on reports of a Qatari-mediated breakthrough, after Iran's Supreme Leader granted the government authority to negotiate and President Pezeshkian said Tehran will pursue dialogue with Washington. Foreign Minister Araqchi says the Strait of Hormuz reopens if the US accepts Iran's conditions, but a separate source insists there will be no action until Washington implements all seven of Iran's demands and maintains the strait remains under Iran's full military control, with no American vessel within a few hundred kilometers. The International Maritime Organization's chief separately warned that the official count of at least 123 attacked ships in the strait likely understates the true toll, since vessels under false flags often go unreported.

Equities are shrugging off the mixed signals and running with the de-escalation narrative, even as the deal that's reshaping today's tape has nothing to do with the Middle East. Marvell Technology's agreement to acquire Lumentum Holdings for $115bn is scrambling the optical and networking space: Lumentum is down 16.6%, Marvell down 10.6%, and Ciena down 9.8% in sympathy. IDEXX Laboratories, by contrast, is up 20.5% despite its trimmed margin outlook, suggesting the earnings beat and raised guidance are winning out. Newell Brands is up 16.1%, CBRE Group up 7.1%, and CRH up 6.8%, while Enphase Energy adds 9.0%. On the downside, AST SpaceMobile is off 8.9% and Talos Energy down 8.4%, both likely caught up in the crude rout given Talos's direct energy exposure.

Away from the headline conflict, the AI financing boom keeps accelerating. Anthropic disclosed roughly $17bn in quarterly revenue against a $23.3bn net loss and $895bn in total committed spend ahead of its planned IPO, while Oracle's move to raise $20bn through stock and bonds is weighing on its shares. Meta is reportedly lining up its own $20bn-plus bond sale, and Alphabet is raising €6bn, underscoring how much capital the industry is pulling in even as individual names wobble. Gold continues to climb toward $3,950 an ounce, a hedge that is holding even as equities rally, a reminder that today's optimism on Iran remains unconfirmed by actual US or Israeli policy moves.

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