Political Analyst Nate Silver said Sunday that a "Blue Tsunami" is coming
The final New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead in nearly every Senate battleground, pushing one leading forecast model's odds of a Democratic majority into the 80 percent range.
Picture: Political Analyst Nate Silver said Sunday that a "Blue Tsunami" is coming
Silver, a forecaster and statistician, was reacting to the latest New York Times/Siena polls, which show Democrats ahead of their Republican opponents in key Senate races.
"NYT/Siena released their presumably final set of polls this evening, and they showed what can only be described as fantastic numbers for Democrats, putting them ahead - sometimes narrowly, sometimes not - in basically every Senate battleground and in the associated governor's races, including in Texas," Silver wrote in his newsletter. He added that much of the polling matches his own model.
The Times' final polls show Democrats up 11 points in Michigan, 7 in Texas, 5 in Kansas and 1 in Alaska. Silver said the results were close but not in "weird" territory for his model, and that the data points to Democrats likely taking the Senate.
He said his team usually doesn't put much weight on single polls, but the Times/Siena results pushed his model's odds of a Democratic Senate majority into the 80 percent range. He added that the model already accounts for the pollster's lean this cycle.
"Although the model trusts the NYT/Siena polls a lot - they're among our more highly-rated pollsters - it does adjust every survey firm's numbers for house effects. In other words, it knows that NYT/Siena has tended to have good numbers for Democrats this cycle, and that's priced into its forecasts," Silver wrote.
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