The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rises to 55.5 in October, beating the 54.5 forecast, but it is one of several factory readings this month that do not agree.

The forecast was simply September's reading of 54.5, so the market expected no change and got a gain of 1.0 point. According to Forex Factory's calendar history, only the 55.6 released on August 3 is higher among this year's releases since March. The gain also extends the run of expansion that ISM counted at nine months in its September report, after a 10-month contraction.

S&P Global's final manufacturing PMI, published this morning, is 54.9, which undoes most of the strength in its flash estimate of 56.0 on October 23. That flash had beaten a 55.5 forecast; the final sits 0.6 points below it. The two surveys use different methods, so the ISM beat does not cancel the S&P Global miss, and neither confirms the other.

The regional picture is no clearer. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index for October was 20.9, against 28.0 expected and 37.8 a month earlier, a drop of 16.9 points. Germany's October manufacturing PMI, at 54.2, matched forecasts exactly.

The Federal Reserve is trying to judge whether demand is cooling enough to ease inflation without tipping into contraction, and it now has ISM at 55.5, S&P Global at 54.9 and the Philadelphia Fed at 20.9. That spread makes any one of them a thin basis for a case in either direction.

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