Brent crude fell 4% in pre-market trading as hopes grew of a deal to end the US-Iran war, yet Iran says it has not reached the point of entering nuclear talks with Washington. The oil price is moving faster than the diplomacy. USO, the crude oil fund, was down 2.41% on the day at $164.76 a share when the news broke.

US envoy Tom Barrack says Washington is "very close" to a deal, naming Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey as mediators. Axios reported that a diplomat involved says the talks are progressing positively and the mediators are working to bridge the remaining gaps. Qatari negotiators spent 12 hours in Tehran, and Axios reported, citing an official briefed on the talks, that Iran is weighing a Qatari draft with a reply due by the end of the week.

But Iran rejected Washington's seven-day Hormuz plan on October 28 as "unacceptable demands" and still insists the US blockade be lifted before talks on the strait go ahead. Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says only Iran's own plan is on the table for Hormuz, even as Iran studies the mediators' nuclear proposals. That sequencing dispute, blockade first or Hormuz first, is the gap no draft has yet closed. Until it is settled, the fall in crude rests on hope rather than on any change in Iran's stated position.

Meanwhile the military track is still running. Iran's armed forces chief says a wider list of US and Israeli targets has been drawn up, completing the planning Khamenei ordered. Trump says no strike will come before the November 3 election. Axios reported that Netanyahu pressed him on a Saturday call to resume strikes once the midterms end, while Trump argued for more time on diplomacy. The Pentagon has a three-day strike plan ready.

© Raydn · raydn.us