The new number does not make Goldman an outlier. Morgan Stanley has $105 for the fourth quarter, and the US Energy Information Administration expects a fourth-quarter average of $105, citing falling inventories, tight diesel supplies and Hormuz disruptions. BMI is higher at $107, and UBS has lifted its year-end call to $110. Citi, at $70, is the outlier on the other side, and it assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens this quarter.

The forecast still sits below the market. Brent traded near $117 on Monday October 26 and was at $114.20 on Wednesday October 28 after falling more than $1, both well above $105. A target in that range implies Goldman expects the price to ease from those levels by December rather than hold them. That fits a bank pricing in a supply risk premium that fades, but it also means the forecast has followed the tape more than it has led it.

The forecast ends a year in which the dominant story was oversupply. A $15 revision, from a bank whose chief executive had already flagged disrupted energy flows as a complication for the outlook, puts a price on that caveat. It implies tighter physical balances, or a geopolitical premium that lasts well into next year.

The politics have not yet helped. Talks to reopen Hormuz have stalled, with Tehran saying the US blockade of Iran must be lifted first. UBS says fresh attacks could push Brent to $120 or more, while a US-Iran deal could pull prices down faster. Goldman itself warned in September that sharper escalation at Hormuz could send oil toward $120.

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