The Democratic sweep is still reshaping markets hours later, but the story has shifted from a rates-and-metals repricing to an outright oil collapse paired with political fallout inside the GOP. Brent has fallen roughly 10% to near $93, its lowest in two months, with WTI down more than $5, as traders price easing Hormuz tensions even as Iran continues to claim it is destroying tankers and drones. Trump himself said midday that the Strait of Hormuz is "open," though no independent confirmation accompanied the claim, and Arab diplomatic sources tell Al-Jadeed that US-Iran talks have made significant progress with clarity expected Friday.

Gold has eased slightly to +2.74% near $4,036/oz while silver extends gains past $52 and palladium jumps 7% to $999, keeping the metals bid intact even as oil reverses hard. The 2-year yield remains near its two-month low and French 10-year yields have fallen another 12.5 bps to 4.80%.

Equities stay broadly risk-on, with SPX's net gamma exposure flipping from -$625m to +$455m, lifting its percentile rank to the 80th from the 16th. Consumer Discretionary, Staples and Tech lead; Energy and Defense lag as crude slides and Rheinmetall trims guidance on order delays. Individual movers include Stanley Black & Decker (+8.9%) and Performance Food Group (+11.6%) on earnings strength, Block (+15.8%) on its DOJ settlement, and sharp declines in Fidelity National Information Services (-23.0%), Unum Group (-18.1%), Trimble (-16.5%) and Karman Holdings (-16.3%). The VIX is down 17.6%.

Politically, the midterm fallout is widening. Mike Johnson will not seek another term as House GOP leader, setting up a Scalise-vs-Jordan contest, while Ron DeSantis called the losses "close to an extinction-level event" for Republicans nationally. JD Vance tied the defeat to the Iran war and ties to Israel; Trump agreed "it's largely true" but said he will not replace Defense Secretary Hegseth, even as Polymarket odds of Hegseth's exit by year-end jumped to 67% from 36% and CBS floated DeSantis as a possible successor.

Elsewhere, American Financial Group, W.W. Grainger and Avnet all beat and raised guidance, Freeport approved a $4.5bn Bagdad copper expansion, and TeraWulf signed Google-backed credit support tied to $19bn of Anthropic data-center leases.

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